And now for something completely different

North Carolina Diplomacy

Posted by Seth on Apr 28, 2008 - 08:37 pm

With the Presidential race for the Republicans over, and with the Democratic race deadlocked, I thought it might be a good time to take a look at NC politics for a few posts.  Being a resident of this great state, I am involved and very interested in what happens here.  Since my last post was about them ding-dang Democrats, I’ll start this little series with the Republican Gubernatorial primary.  (Full disclosure, I have been working with the Pat McCrory campaign for Governor).

Much like the national primary, we have a crowded field for Governor.  Elbie Powers, a peanut farmer, is not running at all.  Bill Graham, the man who ran a legion of ads to fight the gas tax increase, has tried to buy his way to the nomination, though he has been unable to capitalize on his fame from the commercials.  His main problem is that despite his personal wealth, he’s barely spent a dime on the race, and hasn’t even purchased TV ads to get his name out to voters.

That leaves three serious candidates for governor:  Bob Orr, Pat McCrory, and Fred Smith.  Realistically, it is between Pat and Fred, but Bob has been making a good fight at it.

Bob Orr, a former State Supreme Court Justice, has a great website, a common sense message, and is smart as a whip.  He has numerous problems as a candidate.  His main problem is that Pat McCrory is consolidating the moderate Republican vote, which takes away from Orr and Graham, who have similar polling numbers.  His other problem is electability in the general election.  While he points to his ability to win judicial races, those are often seen as more toned down, less partisan affairs.  In a gubernatorial race like this, Orr’s argument that he appeals to independents and Democrats is correct.  The problem is that the Democrats have two good candidates in Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore.  These two also appeal to independents, and Orr is unlikely to attract Democrats away from such strong candidates, no matter his appeal.

After the jump, the main contenders.

Here we are ladies and gentlemen, the main contenders.

In one corner, Fred Smith.  This lawyercattlemanbusinessmanfatherpolitician is trying to run as the most conservative candidate in the field.  He has been traversing the state since at least 2006, doing various events building his name recognition.  His claim to fame has been that he has had a barbecue in every county in the state, a not unimpressive feat.  As of now, he’s polling at about 31%.

His main competition is Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory who opted out of running in 2004, and was waiting for Sue Myrick to run for governor so he could get her Congressional Seat.  When she decided not to run, he began hinting he might consider a run, and in January 2008 he announced.  He is running as the suburban candidate on issues such as crime, transportation, and a good business environment.  In other words, the type of Republican that North Carolinians elect to go to Raleigh, at least in my opinion, which we’ve already established is biased.

One of them has to reach 40% this coming Tuesday, and it seems to be Smith’s organization vs. McCrory’s message and appeal.  If Smith can paint McCrory as the liberal candidate, then he may be able to pull out a victory, or at least put the election into a run-off.  Polling has them at 36-31 McCrory.  I guess we’ll see what happens on Tuesday.