or, how I learned to stop worrying and love positive campaigning

The Andy Griffith Endorsement

Posted by Seth on May 01, 2008 - 08:49 am

After that stunningly insightful look at the Republican race for Governor, I’ll tackle the vitriolic Democratic race.

The race actually ended about a week ago. Beverly Perdue has pulled ahead by a margin of 47-33 against Richard Moore, all because of this:

The infamous Andy Griffith endorsement. North Carolina voters saw this in full effect in 2000 when Andy endorsed now Governor Mike Easley in the weeks before the election.

The race started as a battle royale between Moore and Bev, as each tried to tag the other one as the candidate of Wall Street, and themselves as the candidate of Main Street. Well, when it finally reached critical mass, and Bev saw that such a ferocious primary might prevent her from winning the general election, and she pulled her negative ads off the air, and put an ad on the air to tell everyone about it. Moore had no idea what to do. The success of his campaign relied on tearing down Bev and pulling himself up. When she pulled off her ads, and trumpeted the Andy endorsement, she effectively left Moore with nowhere to go.

So, the campaign for the last two weeks has been Moore trying to find examples of Bev breaking her pledge, and he has failed miserably. The final straw came forth a few days ago when his campaign staff had a press conference to denounce the fact that her stepson’s line of gas stations sells things with the Confederate Flag on them. Moore couldn’t bring himself to attend the event.

That’s right. While Bev is out there talking about health care, education, and jobs, Moore is not attending press conferences talking about a line of gas stations she barely is connected with. Between this and the Andy endorsement, I name this race over, with Bev being the overwhelming victor in her tactical use of Andy Griffith and positive campaigning once she had taken the lead. Round one is over. The General election is looming quickly.

Tags: andy+griffith, confederate+flag, democratic+primary, bev+perdue, richard+moore, nc+gubernatorial+race, | Comment

not everything ages like fine wine

Dateline: 2012

Posted by Mick on Apr 29, 2008 - 02:00 pm

Recently, I stumbled across an interesting entry on the Huffington Post (as much as I dislike Ariana), where aging software had been used to show what each candidate will look in four years. Apparently it took about four hours to complete. Check out McCain-- he looks like the Grim Reaper.

Tags: 2012, grim+reaper, mccain, age, | Comment

And now for something completely different

North Carolina Diplomacy

Posted by Seth on Apr 28, 2008 - 08:37 pm

With the Presidential race for the Republicans over, and with the Democratic race deadlocked, I thought it might be a good time to take a look at NC politics for a few posts. Being a resident of this great state, I am involved and very interested in what happens here. Since my last post was about them ding-dang Democrats, I’ll start this little series with the Republican Gubernatorial primary. (Full disclosure, I have been working with the Pat McCrory campaign for Governor).

Much like the national primary, we have a crowded field for Governor. Elbie Powers, a peanut farmer, is not running at all. Bill Graham, the man who ran a legion of ads to fight the gas tax increase, has tried to buy his way to the nomination, though he has been unable to capitalize on his fame from the commercials. His main problem is that despite his personal wealth, he’s barely spent a dime on the race, and hasn’t even purchased TV ads to get his name out to voters.

That leaves three serious candidates for governor: Bob Orr, Pat McCrory, and Fred Smith. Realistically, it is between Pat and Fred, but Bob has been making a good fight at it.

Bob Orr, a former State Supreme Court Justice, has a great website, a common sense message, and is smart as a whip. He has numerous problems as a candidate. His main problem is that Pat McCrory is consolidating the moderate Republican vote, which takes away from Orr and Graham, who have similar polling numbers. His other problem is electability in the general election. While he points to his ability to win judicial races, those are often seen as more toned down, less partisan affairs. In a gubernatorial race like this, Orr’s argument that he appeals to independents and Democrats is correct. The problem is that the Democrats have two good candidates in Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore. These two also appeal to independents, and Orr is unlikely to attract Democrats away from such strong candidates, no matter his appeal.

After the jump, the main contenders.

The amazing disappearing Mike Easley

Posted by Seth on Apr 28, 2008 - 07:35 pm

Hillary Clinton picked up a big endorsement today when North Carolina Governor Mike Easley agreed to endorse her. The endorsement will be finalized Tuesday.

I am personally not surprised by this development. Easley has been one of those superdelegates I mentioned a long time ago on this blog. He has been one of the ones who has stated that they will decide to endorse whoever they want in the race, and that they will be independent of what the voters say. This has constantly been coded language for those who support Hillary but don’t want to hurt their political careers by endorsing her over Obama in some areas. As he approaches the cessation of his Gubernatorial career, Easley has expressed no interest in running for another office, and is more than likely trying to set himself up for a cabinet position, the ideal spot for someone who is adverse to attention and the spotlight as Dracula is to garlic and the sunlight.

Some people have come out and said that this is not a major endorsement because Easley does not have a political machine in the state. Well, he is a product of a political machine controlled by State Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight and former Governor Jim Hunt. Neither has endorsed, but their actions in the past few weeks show that they prefer Senator Clinton, and may use their influence to assist her here. Basnight joined several in calling upon Obama to debate Clinton in North Carolina along with Hunt. Hunt, a resident of Wilson County (my home), was seen at a Bill Clinton rally in Wilson just a few weeks ago, hinting that he is likely backing the former First Lady. This machine may have the power to prevent Obama from reaching the knock-out victory he was hoping he would get in North Carolina.

I want your opinion folks. This is a major endorsement for Senator Clinton, and is likely a result of her stalwart victory in Pennsylvania, as well as a new poll out today showing the former First Lady doing better against John McCain than Senator Obama. She raised $10 million in the day after Pennsylvania. Senator Obama has repeatedly inserted his foot successfully into his mouth, drawing attention to himself and away from the flaws of Hillary. I am willing to make a bet of some sort that Hillary will be the nominee. I know, I know, she has no chance of that. But neither did Senator McCain. So, I will make a bet with you. If I am right, then I get the simple pleasure of gloating about my political prescience. If I am wrong, which is about a 75-98% chance, I will find a way to humiliate myself in one way or another for your entertainment. Give me some recommendations, and I’ll pick the best, or I’ll at least come up with one that I find to be acceptable without being outrageous.

Game on.

Tags: hillary+clinton, barack+obama, john+mccain, endorsement, mike+easley, political+prescience, | Comment

a party divided cannot stand

Pedantic Pennsylvania

Posted by Mick on Apr 23, 2008 - 07:59 am

Hillary has as expected, pulled off a victory in Pennsylvania. At this point, the divide in the party is something I find rather troubling, especially as exit poll after exit poll has revealed that supporters of either candidate are threatening to desert the party should their opponent win.

The sheer fact that Hillary is still in the race is the farthest thing from selfless that I have ever seen (truly a pity considering her noble past). Many had noted that her only chance to the nomination was to stay close and hope for a major gaffe— CNN last night said that even James Carville, one of the closest friends of the Clintons said it would take “multiple straight flushes” for a win.